Week #3 – Incremental Auction Sell-Off (Don’t Get Caught Holding an Empty Bag of Cash)

Posted on by Kelly Yazdani

Using a bit of provocation, last month we declared that PJM Demand Response is Dead! The caveat here is that PJM Demand Response (as you’ve known it) is Dead, with changes to the Emergency Load Response Program (ELRP) that make it much more difficult for customers to perform and, ultimately, earn cash (e.g., a 30 minute response with 365/24/7 availability doesn’t work for most). 

Our webinar, outlining these changes, and highlighting our out-of-market PeakSaver Program, occurred a few weeks before the close of PJM’s 3rd incremental auction (IA). These incremental auctions give capacity providers, who made commitments to provide capacity three years ago, the opportunity to sell their positions back to the market. Given the changes to ELRP, we had a company-wide hypothesis: curtailment service providers (CSPs) will offer thousands of megawatts back to the market during the 3rd IA, ultimately mitigating their risk of portfolio underperformance under stringent new “capacity performance” program requirements.

There is an important phrase in that last sentence though – mitigating their risk. If a demand response provider unloads their position, what happens to the customer who is expecting to get paid for ELRP program participation in 2020? When the CSP liquidates their position in an IA, the CSP is paid, but the customer’s obligation to perform, and their earning potential, is gone. 

Last week, the results were posted and our theory held true: 4,500 MWs of generation capacity, a large portion of which represents demand response, was sold back to the market, dumping many CSPs’ commitments to deliver for the first full “capacity performance” year (starting 6/1/2020). This capacity offloading is a clear sign that the new capacity performance rules prove too risky and costly for many in-market demand response MWs. Commercial and industrial customers who were expecting to generate revenue for the upcoming power year may find that their position was sold out. The CSP will pocket 100% of the profit, leaving the customer with nothing.

What now? Given these results, CSPs are scrambling to figure out exactly how to maximize the profitability of their portfolio and will only retain the best performing customers into the new power year. Don’t get caught holding the bag. All customers should contact their CSP and get a written confirmation of their position for the upcoming summer. 

Most importantly, sign up for out-of-market demand response. Voltus’s PeakSaver program can be stacked with in-market programs and provide a clear path to cash this summer. Because the program is market independent, you can enroll at any time, doubling your demand response dollars for the coming year. PeakSaver provides a no cost, no risk approach to demand response that proves far more reliable than many in-market programs.

The only bag you should be holding is the one filled with money. Contact us at info@voltus.co or chat with us by clicking on the icon on the bottom right of your screen to get yours.

This post is part of multi-week series dedicated to “Getting the Most Cheese from Demand Response.” Check out Week 1 on Eliminating Capacity Charges and Week 2 on In-Market versus Out-of-Market Demand Response.

Week #2 – Getting the Most Cheese from Demand Response: Unlocking the Value of In-Market and Out-of-Market DR Programs

Posted on by greggdixon@voltus.co

Last week we kicked off our multi-week Vlog series dedicated to unmasking some of the little known tips and tricks of the demand response market.

We started by explaining how easy it is to eliminate capacity charges through Voltus’s Peak Saver program. Peak Saver is an out-of-market, peak shaving program that leverages Voltus’s real-time, cloud-based technology platform. Peak Saver has the potential to more than double your demand response dollars when combined with traditional in-market programs. Who doesn’t like more cash?

But wait … in-market? Out-of-market? What is the difference between these approaches to turning operational flexibility into cash? Read on to learn more.

#2 – In-Market vs. Out-of-market Demand Response

When most people think demand response (DR), they think FERC-regulated programs that only exist in the wholesale energy markets of the US and Canada. ISO-NE, NYISO, PJM, MISO, ERCOT, SPP, and CAISO, as well as IESO and AESO in Canada, have demand response programs that focus on procuring reliable generation capacity, as well energy and ancillary services. Each market has its own variations, but all “in-market” demand response programs are subject to strict market-specific rules and a decent dose of regulatory risk. These programs are constantly evolving, but offer significant cash payments to market participants who commit their negawatts to meet program criteria.

Voltus has created “out-of-market” Peak Saver programs, bringing cash savings opportunities to every region in the US and Canada. Peak Saver leverages VoltApp, our real-time energy technology platform, to predict peak hours, eliminate capacity charges, and lower electric bills by up to 30%. Because there are no strictly defined market rules, there is also no barrier to entry for these programs. Commercial, industrial, and institutional customers can stack in-market and out-of-market demand response programs increasing their net earnings.

To demonstrate the relative value of in-market and out-of-market DR, let’s break it down by looking at the the value of 1 MW of curtailment in AEP Ohio. In the chart below, “in-market” opportunities – Emergency Load Response Program (ELRP), Synchronized Reserves Program (SRP), and the Gross-up (more on that in coming weeks) – represented in green, account for only 28% of the potential value of that MW of curtailment. Voltus’s “out-of-market” PJM program, represented in blue, allows consumers to not only reduce their generation capacity charges (the other side of the coin of in-market demand response revenue) but also transmission capacity charges. In this example, the out-of-market demand response opportunities account for 72% of the value, more than doubling this company’s net demand response dollars.

There are some important trade-offs to consider when optimizing the cash earned from these approaches. First, an energy consumer can benefit from implementing both of these approaches, but typically for only one season. In-market programs limit a customer’s ability to enroll by their peak load contribution value. The value of your peak load contribution is reduced when you participate in out-of-market peak shaving programs, eroding your ability to benefit from the in-market program.

Operationally speaking, in-market demand response programs have a different operational profile than out-of-market programs, summarized in the table below comparing PJM’s ELRP program with Peak Saver. In-market programs historically require fewer hours of annual response. However, with substantially more challenging performance requirements that are fully implemented in 2020, PJM’s ELRP program requires a 24/7/365 response requirement with advance notice of 30 minutes and an unlimited number of potential response hours. Of course, it’s very difficult to predict just how much PJM’s ELRP program will be called under new program requirements. On the other hand, out-of-market demand response in PJM likely requires more actual response hours each year, but the predictability of program requirements is clearer. With about 30 hours of highly predictable curtailment coupled with very clear and easy operational requirements, capturing out-of-market demand response value is often a better approach than in-market demand response alone.

There are additional nuances to comparing the two approaches (out-of-market vs. in-market) and stacking multiple demand response value streams (up to seven distinct programs in Pennsylvania, for instance) requires even deeper consideration. We can help you navigate the host of options. Chat with us below or email us at info@voltus.co

#3 – Incremental Auction Sell-Off

How to avoid absorbing the in-market risk from your demand response service provider … more to come on Thursday, 3/12.

Week #1 – Getting the Most Cheese from Demand Response: Eliminating Capacity Charges

Posted on by greggdixon@voltus.co

A few weeks back we dropped somewhat of a bombshell by declaring that Demand Response in PJM, as You Know It, Is Dead. Of course, this was meant to be a bit provocative with the goal of drawing attention to a better way of capturing the value of demand response in the rapidly evolving and controversial PJM market. During our webinar we explained why demand response in PJM is, in fact, more valuable than ever for commercial and industrial loads that leverage Voltus’s out-of-market DR program – Peak Saver – in addition to traditional in-market programs. Our webinar stirred dozens of questions, many of which we didn’t have time to cover in full detail during the webinar.

This multi-week Vlog series is dedicated to answering those questions with a bit more detail, while extending many of the concepts covered in the webinar into other markets. The goal here, as always, is to help customers turn their operational flexibility into the most cash possible wherever they have operations.

#1 – Eliminating Capacity Charges

Did you know that about 30% of your annual electricity bill comes from the electricity you use during one to five peak hours of the year? Generation and transmission demand or capacity charges (dubbed – TransCap and GenCap) are not only on the rise, but are accounting for a larger portion of large energy consumers’ electric bills over time, which means there’s a growing opportunity to reduce expense.

If you could reduce or eliminate your load during those same peak hours, you can eliminate or reduce a significant portion of your annual electric bill. Put differently, would you be willing to reduce electricity demand for 0.5% of the hours of the year to potentially reduce your annual energy bill by 30%? If the answer is, “Yes!” then we can show you how.

Voltus’s Peak Saver technology platform (VoltApp) helps to eliminate capacity charges by predicting peak load hours, instructing customers to curtail during those hours, measuring your load reduction in real-time, and verifying the savings on your electricity bill to ensure that the savings are captured. We manage this program no differently than a typical demand response program that you may have part.

Peak shaving is often operationally better aligned with a customer’s ability to curtail load or use behind-the-meter assets like onsite generation. Combining traditional in-market demand response programs with our out-of-market Peak Saver program has been proven to more than double the dollars a customer gets from demand response.

Interested in learning more? Chat with us below or email us at info@voltus.co

#2 – In-Market vs. Out-of-Market Demand Response

We’ll delve deeper into these terms and provide clarity on what programs exist in different geographic regions . . . stay tuned for the details on Thursday, 3/5!